As Bollywood looks all set to lose around ₹800 crore due to the Coronavirus threat, we talk to experts and filmmakers to indulge in some forecasting as to how things may pan out once the threat subsides
Prashant Singh (HINDUSTAN TIMES; March 20, 2020)

A Bollywood potboiler may be known for its colourful song-and-dance routines, and paisa vasool entertainment. But currently, things are looking gloomy — due to the coronavirus outbreak — with no definite silver lining in sight for a movie industry that produces as many as 200-250 films per year. As filmmakers and producers find themselves amid a “forced holiday”, thanks to theatres being shut and no shoots, we get experts and filmmakers to look into the crystal ball for some forecasting. Although experts unanimously agree that the industry is losing crores on a daily basis, they are also confident that the magic of cinema will attract audiences quickly once things become normal, and theatres reopen.

Being positive
As trade analyst Taran Adarsh puts it: “One thing is for sure that whenever theatres reopen, it’s not like people would start thronging there immediately. That [movie-watching] habit has to be cultivated again, and it will happen again but gradually.” On the other hand, trade expert Komal Nahta feels that filmgoers will lap up movies that release after the outbreak subsides. He says: “According to me, whenever theatres reopen, people are going to flock there as they would have been starved of entertainment, and will be bored.”

Exhibitor-distributor Akshaye Rathi concurs. As he puts it: “In showbiz or movie business, something called ‘pent-up demand’ works really well. So, for example, whenever a big film like Sooryavanshi releases, people would want to watch it immediately because there was a huge buzz about it during the promotions. That’s why, I am confident that when things become normal and the big, tent-pole films release one after the other in the second half of the year, we will see great results.”

Pandemonium in the pipeline
Besides Sooryavanshi and ’83, other big-ticket films that are in the pipeline include Gulabo Sitabo, Ludo, Gunjan Saxena — The Kargil Girl, Coolie No 1, The Girl On The Train, Shakuntala Devi — Human Computer, Jhund and the two Eid biggies — Radhe — Your Most Wanted Bhai and Laxmmi Bomb. Although there’s no clarity on any release date, experts contend that a big side effect will be “less number of Fridays leading to a mad rush at the box office.”

Nahta explains: “In terms of the number of Fridays, we have had 52-53 of them. Going by the sheer number of movies that we make, those Fridays were anyway less. Now, as we lose certain number of weeks, things will become even tough — whenever there is a sense of normalcy — as some major clashes are in the offing.”

Adarsh, too, feels that “there will surely be a complete pandemonium” at the box office. “We may be left with only about 35-37 Fridays this year. So, there ought to be some big clashes especially since almost all our 2020 biggies are yet to release. Plus, it’s not just about India. Makers also have to work out international release dates, depending on what the situation is like at that time in major foreign Hindi movie markets such as US, UK and Australia. Also, no new, big film will release immediately after the situation comes under control as they will have to be promoted first.”

Losing streak
So, what will the straight, pure losses be like? “The industry stands to lose anything close to ₹800 crore because all the days that we are losing, has a direct effect on Bollywood’s coffers,” says Nahta. Adarsh adds, “The first quarter had only one major hit, Tanhaji: The Unsung Warrior. And now, it’s a given that the second quarter won’t see a great start as well.”

Filmmaker Sanjay Gupta, who has just wrapped up work on his next, Mumbai Saga, is hopeful. He says: “Let’s see how things go. It’s too early to talk about releases. Whenever it happens, I feel relatively smaller films may release together. But I am sure that the big ones will be spaced out as no one would want to take a financial hit.”

Planned moves!
Talks are rife that once theatres reopen, makers may re-release Baaghi 3 and Angrezi Medium since the business of both the films got majorly hit due to the Coronavirus outbreak. Also, it’s believed that Karan Johar’s Takht that was set to go on floors sometime now will be delayed due to the virus outbreak. Plus, rumours suggest that makers of Coolie No 1 may shift the film’s release to either the end of May or first week of June, depending on the situation. But there’s no official word yet. “I’m sure producers and makers will discuss and talk with each other about release dates etc., to avoid any kind of mess,” says Gupta.