Rachana Dubey (BOMBAY TIMES; March 17, 2020)

With advisories issued by the state and central governments following the COVID-19 outbreak, cinema halls in major markets like Mumbai and Delhi will remain closed till March 31. While the Producers Guild of India released an official statement on Sunday, stating that shoots of Hindi films, shows and ads across the country will be suspended from March 19 to 31, the units of Jersey, Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2 and Laal Singh Chaddha were among the first in Bollywood to call off work voluntarily.

Rohit Shetty’s Sooryavanshi was the first film to announce a change in its release date, the cascading effect of which will be seen on releases across the year. Angrezi Medium’s opening collections have taken a hit, too.

While it’s only been a few days since the lockdown, experts are finding it difficult to place a ball-park figure on the losses that the industry stands to suffer. Distributor Amod Mehra believes, “Theatres running Hindi films do an average business of  Rs 15 crore between Monday and Thursday. The weekend numbers are higher. So, if we have three-four weeks’ shutdown, we stand to lose close to Rs 100 crore on Hindi films alone. If you add the screens allocated to cinema from other languages, the number will escalate to Rs 200-300 crore. This is just a modest number that we stand to lose in cinemas in India alone, the overseas collections will also see a huge dip. It’s difficult to gauge the exact figures as of now. Producers have to bear cancellation costs of their on-going and pre-planned shoots. The transportation business affiliated to Bollywood dancers, workers and technicians are also going to suffer because they earn daily wages. Procuring dates from actors to reschedule shoots is another ball game altogether. The crisis does not end here. The films that have all been postponed will come in clusters and fight for footfalls eventually, which will lead to more chaos.”

Nitin Datar, the head of the association for single-screen cinemas in India, points out, “Distributors and producers can release a film at a later date, but we will lose 15 days. We have to keep our business shut and won’t be able to recover the lost time, while we continue to pay salaries and overhead costs. We’re counting on films like Sooryavanshi to help us make up for the monetary losses.”

Kamal Gianchandani, the head of a leading cinema chain, shares, “We are supportive of the measures implemented by the government. In the cities, where cinemas are still operational, we’re following all the measures for hygiene and safety,” he says.

Rajesh Thadani, a distributor from Mumbai, explains, “Angrezi Medium is the worst affected. We can only hope that filmmakers will act sensibly while choosing their release windows to ensure that they eat as little into each other’s businesses as possible. Hollywood films are also going to queue up. In all of this, my worry is that smaller films will have to put up a bigger fight for their little space.”

Trade expert Komal Nahta says, “It was already getting difficult to avoid clashes between big films in the year. Now, with this situation, it will get even more difficult. Sooryavanshi has moved and in effect, films like '83 will also look for another window. A chain-reaction has set in. The business will also suffer losses to the tune of Rs 300-500 crore because the weeks when the cinemas are not functioning will have to be wiped out of the calendar in terms of income.”

Amul Mohan, trade expert, sums up, “The numbers can be dizzying because the impact of lockdowns is multi-layered. There will be weeks when you might see several big films releasing across the limited number of screens that we have. In such a scenario, it may not be wise to attach numbers because that can add to the panic in the business. The numbers could be much higher than what is being quoted all over; let’s just pray that it does not escalate too much.”