Despite seat-distancing, will big releases prove to be a shot in the arm for industry in last quarter of 2020?
Ankita Chaurasia (MUMBAI MIRROR; July 8, 2020)

The Coronavirus pandemic has stripped cinema halls of audiences. However, with film and TV productions gradually returning to work and bigticket films like Sooryavanshi, ’83, and Radhe lining up for theatrical releases, the last quarter of 2020 may just be the comeback they need.

Optimists point to the fact that it’s the season of festival weekends, star-power and Diwali, Christmas blockbusters, which could very well turn the tide for the industry. Meanwhile, sceptics wonder if movie-goers would risk venturing out after months of social distancing, especially when fresh content is now home-delivered.

For starters, the total shutdown of cinema halls isn’t unprecedented. Pandemics, riots, and protests have disrupted operations in the past—in 2009, the stand-off between Bollywood producers and multiplex owners over revenue-sharing had brought the industry to its knees for over four months. “But at least there was a tentative end date in sight,” points out Ramesh Sippy of Raksha Distributors and President of the Indian Motion Pictures Distributors Association (IMPDA), insisting that the initial response to theatres reopening will be subdued. “I have been in the house for the last 100 days; why should I step out for a film?” he argues, adding that only high-value content can lure people back into theatres. “Salman Khan, Akshay Kumar, Ranveer Singh have a pull at the box office but you can’t expect a rush. It will happen gradually and in phases,” he predicts.

Exhibitor Akshaye Rathi is willing to allay fears by slashing ticket and F&B rates to compete with OTT platforms. “There’s no distancing in airplanes and yet, people are back to flying regularly. We are reserving flanking seats for units of the audience, which should assure them of safety. By now, we know that you can even enjoy a match at the Eden Gardens with 80,000 other people and walk out unaffected if you follow protocol,” he reasons.

But won’t the reduced rates and empty seats further hamper their already dwindling cash flow and also hit the film’s collections for a toss? “The national occupancy average is 30 per cent and since many films have taken the digital route and several others are yet to be completed, we won’t see many releases, which means longer runtime and numerous shows for one film,” he explains.

Echoing Rathi’s thoughts, Mohan Umrotkar, CEO, Carnival Cinemas, assures that blockbusters can still be a reality. “Maybe the film will have to run half-a-day more to clock in as much profit as it would have otherwise made in a two-day run, but we will try and run for additional hours, with permission from the government,” he promises, adding that as a theatre, they’d only lose out on 20 per cent occupancy due to revised seating arrangement as only a few shows have full occupancy.

Meanwhile, trade analyst Amod Mehra is relying on the spirit of Mumbaikars to set the cash registers ringing again. Exulting about zombie film Alive doing well as soon as theatres opened in South Korea and halls returning to business in Sri Lanka, he asserts, “Hundred to 200 people die on our streets and local trains every day; a virus won’t stop the audience. Just like they flocked the liquor stores, they’ll be queuing up for tickets for an afternoon of entertainment, as opposed to the time-pass they’ve been subjected to on digital platforms”. In the same breath, he points out that no amount of planning will be fruitful unless the government gives a go-ahead.

Manoj Desai, Executive Director, G7 Multiplex and Maratha Mandir, is equally flustered about the fact that neither Prime Minister Narendra Modi nor Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray have addressed the plight of theatre owners. And while he is elated that Akshay Kumar has assured him that his Rohit Shetty-directed Sooryavanshi will be a theatrical release, he is not too sure of the outcome. “People won’t come to the theatres for at least four months. Even restaurants are offering home deliveries because they know patrons won’t go outside to eat. Watching films is a similar experience - enjoyable but not essential,” he shrugs.

That makes it seem like going the digital way is a safer choice for the films in question, but Komal Nahta begs to differ. Agreeing that it’s a gamble but one that producers of the aforementioned films had to take due to lack of an alternative, the trade analyst elaborates, “You don’t make a film of Rs 150 to Rs 200 crore just to break even; you need some big profits.” But if the odds work out in the filmmakers’ favour, Komal believes that the payoff would be huge. “These films can be even bigger blockbusters than we have witnessed before because of the lack of competition”.

Vinay Chowksi of Aum Exhibitors is just as hopeful about the outcome and if he is to be believed, so is the trade. “Diwali is an auspicious time for us and a long lull will mean the audience would be waiting to rush back to theatres. If a vaccine is found by then, social distancing won’t be required either,” he gushes.

With only 60 per cent of film shot before lockdown and VFX pending, sources say Aamir Khan's December release Laal Singh Chaddha likely to be postponed to April 2021
Upala KBR (MID-DAY; May 19, 2020)

If Eid is synonymous with Salman Khan offerings, Christmas belongs to Aamir Khan who has delivered some of his biggest hits — including Dhoom 3 (2013), PK (2014) and Dangal (2016) — during this festive period. The superstar probably had similar ambitions when he announced his passion project, Laal Singh Chaddha, as a December 25 release. However, with only 60 per cent of the film shot before the Coronavirus lockdown was brought into effect, sources suggest that the official adaptation of Tom Hanks's Forrest Gump (1994) may be rescheduled for an April 2021 release.

After completing their fourth schedule in Amritsar on March 17, Khan called off the next stint, in keeping with the cine bodies' decision to suspend all shoots. A trade source says, "The unit was to head to Chandigarh for another round of filming. The shoot was moving like clockwork, and Aamir was hoping to release the first teaser around Diwali. However, the lockdown has put the brakes on his plans. Even if the shoots resume by August or September, it is unlikely that the movie will hit screens by December. It may target April 2021 for release."

It is also worth noting that the offering, which traces the protagonist's journey over 30 years as he unwittingly influences important political and cultural milestones in India, will heavily rely on visual effects. "Besides presenting Aamir as a 20-something who grows older as the narrative progresses, the film will also depict events like the Babri Masjid demolition and the Kargil war. It won't be easy to complete such intricate VFX work in a short time," adds the source. Couple that with Khan's perfectionist streak, and one can be assured that his labour of love won't arrive at the theatres until the actor-producer is happy down to the last detail.

Ask trade analyst Amod Mehra if missing the December 25 deadline will adversely affect the Kareena Kapoor Khan-starrer, and he says, "With Aamir's movies, the date makes no difference; whenever Laal Singh Chaddha releases, it will be Christmas at the box-office!"

The actor's spokesperson did not respond till press time.

While theatre owners call it a panic move by filmmakers to release their movies straight on OTT platforms, the Producers Guild of India says that they are ‘passionately supportive’ of theatrical release, but this move has been made given the unpredictability that lies ahead, owing to the pandemic
Rachana Dubey (BOMBAY TIMES; May 16, 2020)

The lockdown, which was implemented due to the Coronavirus outbreak, has had a severe impact on the film industry. With theatres downing shutters for the time being and film releases stalled, it’s led to huge losses for all fractions of the movie business, including the exhibitors (theatres owners) and producers. While some filmmakers decided to hold back their films, other producers started exploring options of releasing their films on OTT platforms, largely for monetary and logistical reasons. Many international films have already been released on various digital platforms.

On the home front, over the last two days, an OTT platform announced the straight-to-digital release of two prominent Bollywood films – the Amitabh Bachchan and Ayushmann Khurrana-starrer Gulabo Sitabo (produced by Rising Sun Films) and Shakuntala Devi, headlined by Vidya Balan (produced by Abundantia Entertainment). Their line-up also included several regional films, like Ponmagal Vandhal (Tamil), Penguin (Tamil and Telugu), Law (Kannada), French Biryani (Kannada) and Sufiyum Sujatayum (Malayalam). Exhibitors have strongly voiced their displeasure with this development as it adds to their revenue loss, which has already been a huge concern due to the temporary closure of theatres. They also have to prepare for a complete overhaul of the viewing system (read: safety and precautionary measures) when cinemas open up eventually, along with facing the challenge of drawing the audience back to the big screen.

Siddharth Jain of INOX Group, evidently upset at the turn of events, said, “Today, as a cinema chain, I am forced to ask my producer friends, that when the cinemas ultimately open, what are they expecting me to show the audience there? Will anyone pay to watch an old film? What did hurt us as a part of this fraternity was the fact that the producers did not even speak to us about this before making a decision. The Multiplex Association of India had requested for this, but decisions were made unilaterally. It’s a 100-year-old relationship between production and exhibition. The last time when it experienced a jolt in 2008, it came out of it with flying colours. I am still hopeful for the same this time, too.”

Talking to us soon after the announcement of Gulabo Sitabo releasing directly on an OTT platform, director of the film, Shoojit Sircar, had said, “The decision to release Gulabo Sitabo on an OTT platform involved extensive discussion with my team. This would be the first for me as well as my team to experiment with a digital release. But we all are aware of the current scenario and when we weighed against all the advantages, we felt this was a good decision. It was due for a theatrical release in April and given the unforeseen circumstances, I took my time and decided to experiment and release Gulabo Sitabo online... I definitely believe both OTT and theatrical releases can co-exist, it all depends on the situation and the time of need. I can’t predict whether this would become a trend. It ultimately depends on the kind of story and film you are making.”

Amod Mehra, independent distributor and trade analyst, believes by going straight to OTT, producers are doing themselves a disservice. “By choosing streaming over a theatrical release, they will lose almost all the other avenues, including TV satellite rights, which earn them a big chunk. When a producer signs Akshay Kumar for a film, he knows that if he spends Rs. 100 crore making the film, he will earn way more than that. By selling to OTT, that will considerably reduce.”

A source from a leading production house says, “Once we are able to overcome these difficult times and cinemas reopen, we are extremely optimistic that audiences will want to come back. The theatre viewing experience is here to stay.”

Some of the other films that are reportedly considering a straight-to-digital release include Laxmmi Bomb, Jhund, Ludo, Mimi, Gunjan Saxena and Khaali Peeli.
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OTT WON’T REPLACE THEATRES, TAKE IT EASY: FILMMAKERS

I definitely believe that both OTT and theatrical releases can co-exist, it all depends on the situation and time. I can’t predict whether this would become a trend. It ultimately depends on the kind of story and film you are making — Shoojit Sircar, director Gulabo Sitabo

We will hold on to our films like Sooryavanshi and '83 for as long as we can. A decision to move any of our films will be made jointly with the producing partners and the directors involved — Shibasish Sarkar of Reliance Entertainment

The big screen will not get replaced by OTT. Audiences will have more choice. They will go to the theatres. Many films will find their audience on OTT. But that is the future. Right now it is a battle for survival. If producers survive, exhibitors will thrive. Live and let live. The producers and the director want the best for their film. One wants investments to be protected, the other wants her/his film to be experienced by maximum people over the longest duration of time. Why should exhibitors feel threatened? You win some, you lose some... — Hansal Mehta, filmmaker
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THEY’RE FALLING INTO A TRAP, SHOULD HOLD RELEASE: EXHIBITORS

The Producers Guild has said they have done this for logistical and monetary reasons. Doesn’t the exhibition sector have expenses to be met with? Could the producers not have waited another month or two for the cinemas to open? – Siddharth Jain of INOX Group

We believe that theatrical release is the best way for audiences to experience the labour and creative genius of our filmmakers. We are disappointed with some producers deciding to go straight to streaming platforms. We were hoping that they would accede to our request to hold back their film’s release till cinemas reopen — Kamal Gianchandani of PVR Pictures

No one should use OTT platforms in a manner that cinemas cease to exist. If you omit theatrical release, you won’t make up entirely for what you have lost. They’re falling into a temporary trap, which can become permanent. This will also force the film distribution channels to shut shop — Ramesh Sippy of Raksha Distributors

If this trend continues, and they continue selling in panic, the hit and flop aspect of a film will not be measurable anymore. It will force theatres to go out of business along with distribution channels and every other allied activity that thrives on cinema — Amod Mehra, distributor & trade analyst
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SUPPORTIVE OF THEATRICAL RELEASE, BUT UNPRECEDENTED TIMES: PRODUCERS GUILD

The Producers Guild would like to emphasize that we are unequivocally and passionately supportive of the theatrical release of films, and a theatrical release will always be the preference for movies that were conceptualized as a cinematic experience. But these are unprecedented times and it is imperative to see things in that context.
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REQUEST FILMMAKERS TO HOLD AND RELEASE THEIR FILMS IN THEATRES: MULTIPLEX ASSOCIATION

We would like to urge all to support the cinema exhibition sector by holding and releasing their films in theatres, once they open again... to kindly respect the exclusive theatrical window, which has been a time-tested industry practice, agreed to by all stake-holders for several decades.

Industry insiders say that releasing smaller-budget movies on OTT platforms could be an option for filmmakers given the ongoing lockdown
Rachana Dubey (BOMBAY TIMES; April 12, 2020)

With the ongoing nationwide lockdown, Bollywood is surrounded by uncertainty. Losses are shooting up, and the trade fears that the upcoming months will see a tough run at the box office. Over a fortnight ago, Universal Pictures in the US had decided to release one of their fresh movies, Trolls World Tour, online and in theatres simultaneously, on Friday, April 10. However, the film ended up on home entertainment platforms with no theatrical release. The studio has also pushed some of its in-theatre films like The Invisible Man, The Hunt and Emma, on home-video platforms. Studios like Paramount and Disney have also released their films (The Lovebirds and Artemis Fowl, respectively) directly on streaming platforms.

FILMS THAT MOVED TO OTT AFTER THE LOCKDOWN HALTED THEIR THEATRICAL RUN
Closer home, Irrfan-starrer Angrezi Medium, which released on March 13, registered a short run at the BO amidst the Coronavirus crisis. Though producer Dinesh Vijan had expressed the desire to re-release the film in theatres post the lockdown, in the current scenario, it has been released on the OTT platform. The Tamil remake of Vicky Donor, Dharala Prabhu, and Telugu thriller Madha faced the same problem. The question is, will this become a trend in India, where small and medium-budget films made for a theatrical release open straight on OTT platforms for a premium fee?

TOP ACTORS DON’T WANT THEIR FILMS TO RELEASE ON OTT DIRECTLY: TRADE
Trade analyst Komal Nahta says, “We will witness many BO clashes. The bigger films will have to wait for the overseas markets to also normalise before starting promotions. So, while a big film may not readily consider an OTT release as an option, if things get tougher, mid-ranged and smaller films could explore it to recover investments.” Independent distributor and trade analyst Amod Mehra says, “It won’t be easy, because top actors don’t want their films to release on OTT directly.”

Hindi films that release theatrically can be made available on an OTT platform only after six-eight weeks of release, according to a contract with exhibitors. It’s six weeks or 90 days in the US market, too. Shibasish Sarkar, Group CEO, Content, Digital & Gaming at Reliance Entertainment, which is backing Kabir Khan’s '83 (which was to release in theatres on April 10), adds, “We will end up with a clogged release window when things open up. I won’t be surprised if some mid and small-budget films go straight for digital release. Not every producer has the capacity to hold on to a film for very long. Also, if some important films move to OTT directly, it might lead to a new consumption pattern.”

As movie theatres get shut in several important overseas markets for Hindi films due to Coronavirus, experts say whenever the situation improves, Hindi filmmakers will have a big ‘challenge at hand’
Prashant Singh (HINDUSTAN TIMES; March 27, 2020)

Did you know that overseas markets contribute as much as 30- 40% to overall box office business of Hindi films? Or, that China topped the highest collection list in the overseas region at over ₹1,900 crore in 2018, to become the largest international market for Indian films? That’s why overseas markets have gradually become an extremely critical component of a Hindi film’s total earnings, and so, no filmmaker — quite understandably — wants to let go of that lucrative source of income.

Total lockdown
Currently, amid the Covid-19 outbreak across the globe, overseas film theatres — like in India — have been shut. All theatres in Australia, New Zealand and Fiji are shut for eight weeks till May-end; and AMC Theatres in the US have been closed for 6-12 weeks. Furthermore, theatres are also shut in many parts of Europe as well as Canada, Dubai and China, too. And trade experts feel it “throws a challenge of a new kind” at filmmakers considering the fact that “we live in the age of simultaneous releases across the globe.”

“Be it US, UK, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Canada or Fiji, they are really important markets for Hindi films. Also, today, we live in a world wherein all the films — regardless of its budget — have to be released simultaneously in the international markets too. All the release dates have to be synchronised in a manner that it hits theatres at one go. So, whenever things come under control, filmmakers have to keep the global situation in mind because it won’t be possible to release the films till theatres open in overseas markets, too,” says trade analyst Taran Adarsh. Experts also point to the fact that there will be a barrage of international/Hollywood releases once the Coronavirus threat subsides.

Keeping the hope
At the same time, trade expert Komal Nahta is hopeful that the global situation vis-à-vis Coronavirus “will improve” before India because the outbreak happened in India “quite late.” He explains: “Countries such as China, US, UK, Italy, Dubai and other parts of Europe were hit by the virus before India, so they should, hopefully, recover before us. So, that shouldn’t be a problem. But the fact remains that overseas market is a huge contributor to our total earnings, and so it just can’t be ignored.”

Besides the fact that foreign markets contribute about 30- 40% to overall Hindi films’ pie, newer territories such as China and Australia have grown big in recent times. In China, for example, Indian films have seen massive growth in terms of the release cycle — it went from just two releases in 2016 to 10 in 2018. “Small films don’t release overseas so they can release only in India but biggies such as Sooryavanshi or ’83 can’t let go of the huge international pie. If Sooryavanshi expects to make ₹50 crore internationally, why would they let it go? It’s simple mathematics,” says trade expert Amod Mehra.

Thinking of movies
However, Adarsh feels “we are looking a bit too ahead”. “Don’t forget that even when things settle down a bit, watching films in theatres will be the last thing on people’s minds. That habit will have to be re-cultivated. We have spoken so much about ‘social distancing’ that people will be iffy about going into public places,” he says. And lastly, when can we realistically expect a new film release? “That’s a billion dollar question because no one will have an answer to that,” say experts unanimously. Adarsh adds: “If you have noticed, makers of Sooryavanshi, ’83 and Haathi Mere Saathi have moved their films but without any fixed release date.”

Even as uncertainty looms large due to Covid-19 outbreak, cinema halls make salary provisions for employees
Sonil Dedhia (HINDUSTAN TIMES; March 22, 2020)

The entertainment industry is reeling under the impact of Covid-19 outbreak, like other businesses. Cinema halls have been shut till March 31 in most states and film shoots have been halted. Even the release of big-budget films, such as Sooryavanshi and ’83, has been postponed.

Amid the crisis, cinema owners are trying to ensure that there’s a salary provision in place for employees. Manoj Desai, executive director, G-7 multiplex and Maratha Mandir, Mumbai, informs that the non-operation of theatres won’t result in the slashing of the salaries. “The shutdown is a huge blow. We have a staff of around 100 people across our two properties. We will give them the entire salaries till March 31. If the government continues the shutdown, we will take a call accordingly,” Desai says.

A similar policy is being followed by Miraj Cinemas. Bhuvanesh Mendiratta, associate vice president, operations and development, of the cinemas, says, “The situation is uncertain. We don’t know for how long the crisis will last. We are dispersing a 100% payment to our employees till March 31. What happens after that depends on how critical the situation is.”

At Carnival Cinemas, Mohan Umrotkar, CEO, informs that the senior level management has taken a salary cut. “The board members and those at the CXO level have taken a voluntary cut of 25% till the operation is shut,” says Umrotkar, adding that the other employees have been asked to exhaust their paid leaves. Umrotkar, however, adds that the government provides some relief in terms of concession or exemption, failing which the entire industry will have to take drastic measures. “There are fixed costs like rent, electricity etc involved. We are hoping the government can provide some respite by reduction in fixed cost,” he says.

Anish Jain, head of finance and accounts at Raj Mandir, Jaipur, says, “We shut down our theatre on March 14, as directed by the Rajasthan government. Every employee will be given their salary. We will stick to this till March 31.”

A spokesperson from SVF Cinemas, West Bengal, says, “All employees across all our verticals will be paid full salary till March 31. We have planned to pay employees in advance, in case there is a lock down.”

Trade analyst Amod Mehra says that theatres across the country will face a severe financial blow. “I don’t think we have ever witnessed such a shutdown in the history of Indian cinema. Mumbai alone has about 200 screens, which will stay closed till March 31. It’s hard to quantify exactly how much money is at stake. If the closure continues till next month, this would have severe implications including job and salary cuts.”

We reached out to Inox Cinemas who refused to comment on the matter. At the same time there was no response from PVR cinemas till the time of going to press.

With inputs from Titas Chowdhury



Piping hot business no longer

With a daily consumption of over 50,000-60,000 samosas at theatres across Mumbai, the snack is a hot favourite. For the past five decades and three generations, most cinema halls in Mumbai have got their daily supply of samosas from A-1 Samosa, situated in Sion. But now with the shutting down of the cinema halls, A-1 Samosa’s business is suffering badly. A representative from the firm, who doesn’t wish to be named, says, “The business is affected badly. It’s a complete shut down. We are operating at 25% of our capacity. Theatres are going to be shut for at least another 10 days and it might even continue if the situation doesn’t improve.”

Rachana Dubey (BOMBAY TIMES; March 17, 2020)

With advisories issued by the state and central governments following the COVID-19 outbreak, cinema halls in major markets like Mumbai and Delhi will remain closed till March 31. While the Producers Guild of India released an official statement on Sunday, stating that shoots of Hindi films, shows and ads across the country will be suspended from March 19 to 31, the units of Jersey, Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2 and Laal Singh Chaddha were among the first in Bollywood to call off work voluntarily.

Rohit Shetty’s Sooryavanshi was the first film to announce a change in its release date, the cascading effect of which will be seen on releases across the year. Angrezi Medium’s opening collections have taken a hit, too.

While it’s only been a few days since the lockdown, experts are finding it difficult to place a ball-park figure on the losses that the industry stands to suffer. Distributor Amod Mehra believes, “Theatres running Hindi films do an average business of  Rs 15 crore between Monday and Thursday. The weekend numbers are higher. So, if we have three-four weeks’ shutdown, we stand to lose close to Rs 100 crore on Hindi films alone. If you add the screens allocated to cinema from other languages, the number will escalate to Rs 200-300 crore. This is just a modest number that we stand to lose in cinemas in India alone, the overseas collections will also see a huge dip. It’s difficult to gauge the exact figures as of now. Producers have to bear cancellation costs of their on-going and pre-planned shoots. The transportation business affiliated to Bollywood dancers, workers and technicians are also going to suffer because they earn daily wages. Procuring dates from actors to reschedule shoots is another ball game altogether. The crisis does not end here. The films that have all been postponed will come in clusters and fight for footfalls eventually, which will lead to more chaos.”

Nitin Datar, the head of the association for single-screen cinemas in India, points out, “Distributors and producers can release a film at a later date, but we will lose 15 days. We have to keep our business shut and won’t be able to recover the lost time, while we continue to pay salaries and overhead costs. We’re counting on films like Sooryavanshi to help us make up for the monetary losses.”

Kamal Gianchandani, the head of a leading cinema chain, shares, “We are supportive of the measures implemented by the government. In the cities, where cinemas are still operational, we’re following all the measures for hygiene and safety,” he says.

Rajesh Thadani, a distributor from Mumbai, explains, “Angrezi Medium is the worst affected. We can only hope that filmmakers will act sensibly while choosing their release windows to ensure that they eat as little into each other’s businesses as possible. Hollywood films are also going to queue up. In all of this, my worry is that smaller films will have to put up a bigger fight for their little space.”

Trade expert Komal Nahta says, “It was already getting difficult to avoid clashes between big films in the year. Now, with this situation, it will get even more difficult. Sooryavanshi has moved and in effect, films like '83 will also look for another window. A chain-reaction has set in. The business will also suffer losses to the tune of Rs 300-500 crore because the weeks when the cinemas are not functioning will have to be wiped out of the calendar in terms of income.”

Amul Mohan, trade expert, sums up, “The numbers can be dizzying because the impact of lockdowns is multi-layered. There will be weeks when you might see several big films releasing across the limited number of screens that we have. In such a scenario, it may not be wise to attach numbers because that can add to the panic in the business. The numbers could be much higher than what is being quoted all over; let’s just pray that it does not escalate too much.” 

While Hollywood has deferred releases and cancelled outdoor shoots, Bollywood is resorting to wait-and-watch strategy for upcoming films
Himesh Mankad (MUMBAI MIRROR; March 12, 2020)

It has been a frantic few days at Rohit Shetty’s Andheri office. The filmmaker is currently juggling post-production of his upcoming Akshay Kumar-starrer Sooryavanshi with meetings to decide its release date. The daily discussions are also attended by the actor, along with producer Karan Johar and Shibasish Sarkar, CEO, Reliance Entertainment.

The team unveiled the trailer with a star-studded event on March 2, but is yet to release a new promo. while a song launch has been deferred. While the cop-drama is slated to arrive on March 24, Shibasish also has Kabir Khan’s Ranveer Singh-fronted ’83 coming out on April 10. There were plans of a trailer launch for the sports-drama on March 11, with the real and reel cricketers assembling at the MMRDA Grounds, which was cancelled recently.

Now, amid the globally intensifying Coronavirus scare—the confirmed number of cases in India reportedly touched 60 on Wednesday—buzz is, both the films could be postponed. “We haven’t changed the release dates yet, but talks are on as the situation is changing every few hours. We are unable to ascertain if the impact of Coronavirus is big enough to alter the releases,” Shibasish confides, adding that the makers are racing against time to take a call by the coming weekend. “I need to have the prints of Sooryavanshi ready for delivery in international markets by March 17; we don’t have much time.”

Trade analyst Taran Adarsh attributes the dilemma surrounding the two films to the fear of public spaces in the outbreak’s aftermath. “Malls are not recording requisite footfalls; everyone is fearful of catching the infection. Besides India, the scare is likely to impact numbers abroad. The US, UK, Europe, Australia, UAE-GCC and New Zealand are big markets for Hindi films,” he explains.

He goes on to state that a delay in Sooryavanshi’s release could set off a chain reaction for Bollywood’s summer outings. “Postponing a film is expensive, particularly for a film like Sooryavanshi; its release date is plastered all over the country on hoardings. Moreover, changing the date would mean a massive overhaul in the schedule of the films that are to follow it in theatres,” Taran reasons, pointing out that Akshay, who has Laxmmi Bomb slated for Eid, would want considerable gap between the two films.

However, Rajasthan-based exhibitor Raj Bansal urges filmmakers to delay their releases without wasting more time. “Baaghi 3’s collections was affected by 10 to 15 per cent. Since diagnosed cases are on the rise, there is a possibility of the outbreak making a bigger dent in the coming days. The big films should not risk it,” he reasons. While Shibasish agrees with the magnitude of the impact, he would still like to wait and watch.

Another trade analyst, Amod Mehra, insists that the Tiger Shroff-starrer Baaghi 3 has done decent business for its genre and that the scare has not affected the industry. “There is nothing to worry about, at least in India. However, since Sooryavanshi is a big film, it might lose Rs 30 crore in international markets,” he agrees, adding that the exhibitors stand to suffer the most if film releases are delayed. “The producers incur losses when interest on the loan mounts with the delay, in addition to marketing expenses. But exhibitors lose all the business if a film doesn’t open,” he points out. Are theatre owners taking steps to keep their premises coronavirus-free? “Nothing can be done. We can’t provide masks. The least we can do is clean the seats with Dettol after every show. But even that’s a costly and tedious task,” Bansal says.

In Kerala, cinema halls have been ordered to remain shut till March 31. By trade expert Sreedhar Pillai’s estimate, this could set the Malayalam industry back by Rs 100 crore. “If Sooryavanshi arrives on March 24, it will stand to lose approximately Rs 2 crore as Kerala is a small market for Hindi films,” he informs, adding that the bigger worry for the state would be Priyadarshan’s magnum opus, the Mohanlal-starrer Marakkar - The Lion of The Arabian Sea, which has been indefinitely postponed from its original release date of March 26.

According to Bansal, this could be a silver lining for smaller films. “They normally lose money due to competition but here, the situation could result in a successful solo run for them.”

While Bollywood mulls the fate of its upcoming releases, the release date of the new James Bond film, No Time To Die, has been deferred from April to November this year. More recently, the Italy schedule of Tom Cruise’s seventh Mission Impossible film was cancelled. According to a source, except for Salman Khan’s Radhe which is sticking to its Eid date, the other A-list summer films, including Gunjan Saxena: The Kargil Girl, Coolie No 1 and Laxmmi Bomb are waiting for the Sooryavanshi and ’83 makers to finalise their release dates for more clarity on the boxoffice calendar.

At the time of going to press, the Sooryavanshi team was in a closed door meeting to debating the issue. Earlier in the evening, Mumbai had reported its first two cases (out of 10 in the state).

Mohar Basu (MID-DAY; March 11, 2020)

Only last week, the makers of No Time To Die announced that the film's release was being pushed from April 10 to November, in the wake of the Coronavirus outbreak. Like James Bond, the bigwigs of Bollywood too are apparently rethinking the release dates of upcoming films — including Sooryavanshi and 83 — to avoid losses.

mid-day has learnt that Akshay Kumar, filmmaker Rohit Shetty and the head honchos of Reliance Entertainment are expected to meet later this week to decide if the release of Sooryavanshi, that was to hit the marquee on March 24, should be postponed. A source informs, "Rohit Shetty's last offering, Simmba, had opened at approximately Rs 20.7 crore. But the tracking shows that Sooryavanshi may open at a lower figure. It is obvious that the projection has dipped due to the ongoing COVID-19 scare. More importantly, Maharashtra is an important centre for Hindi films, and with new cases in Nashik and Pune, the footfalls are bound to drop in the coming days. So, they are toying with the idea of delaying the release by a few weeks."

With 12 coronavirus cases in Kerala, the government has announced that theatres across the state will remain shut until March 31. If the move is replicated in other states, more and more films will have to rework their release dates. Sources suggest that Ranveer Singh's '83 is already looking at an alternative. "The trailer launch, which was originally scheduled to take place today, has been moved to a later date. It's possible that '83 will release post IPL in the first week of June. Karan Johar's production Gunjan Saxena: The Kargil Girl too may be pushed from its April 24 date."

Trade analyst Amod Mehra believes that the possible postponing of films may have an adverse effect on theatres. "Rumours are rife that both Sooryavanshi and '83 will be pushed ahead. Right now, it's a wait-and-watch scenario. If they are indeed delayed, the theatres will be affected; the movies won't suffer."

Dharma Productions, Reliance Entertainment, Kabir Khan and Rohit Shetty refused to comment for this report.

Upala KBR (MID-DAY; February 6, 2020)

Films clashing at the box-office on Republic Day and festival weekends is hardly new. But now, two big-ticket projects have booked the Valentine's Day weekend a year in advance. Deepika Padukone's yet-untitled relationship drama, co-starring Siddhant Chaturvedi and Ananya Panday, will lock horns with Atrangi Re — that features Akshay Kumar, Sara Ali Khan and Dhanush — on Valentine's Day 2021.

Trade analyst Taran Adarsh reasons that the February 14 weekend would be an attractive window as both offerings are love stories. "While Valentine's Day is not a holiday, the youth comes in large numbers to watch [romantic] movies. Gully Boy [fared well] in 2019, and this year, we have Love Aaj Kal. Since there are only limited holidays in a year, makers want to take advantage of other windows available."

With over a year to go to the weekend in question, trade watcher Amod Mehra says that the films may well change their release dates. However, he doesn't view the weekend as an advantageous one. "For years, makers have released love stories on Valentine's Day. But these films rarely fare well because [schools and colleges] have their exams during this period, [resulting in low footfalls]." Atul Mohan is optimistic that one of the players will gracefully bow out of the race. "We have seen some big films announcing their release dates, only to shift them later. A clash is not fruitful; the recent releases [Tanhaji and Chhapaak, Street Dancer 3D and Panga] proved that."

Even though the Padukone starrer will be helmed by Shakun Batra and produced by Karan Johar, film distributor Raj Bansal believes the Aanand L Rai-directed venture enjoys the upper hand. "Akshay has been consistent in his box-office outings. While Dhanush's presence will help the business in the South, Akshay will draw audiences across India."

As Maharashtra government formation inspires enough drama, producers throng IMPPA to register titles related to the political episode
Sonil Dedhia (MID-DAY; November 28, 2019)

Filmmakers are all too aware of how real-life episodes often offer more compelling narratives than their fictional stories. So, it's not surprising that even as the country bore witness to the month-long turmoil that surrounded the formation of Maharashtra government and the eventual appointment of Uddhav Thackeray as chief minister, several filmmakers rushed to the Indian Motion Pictures Producers' Association (IMPPA) to register titles related to the political situation in the state.

An IMPPA representative tells mid-day that over the past week, the organisation has received an overwhelming number of applications from major production houses, including T-Series. "We have seen a huge demand for titles like Chanakya Ka Khel, Mahagatbandhan, Aghadi, Mahayuti and Saheb. The association has received at least five to 10 applications every day," says the representative, adding that several studios are trying their best to expedite the process. "The processing of a regular application takes about 45 to 50 days. But many top studios have paid a premium of Rs 3,000; in such cases, we have to respond within seven days."

Trade analyst Amod Mehra says, "At a time when there are so many remakes happening, an original subject like this is pure gold for filmmakers."

After Ronnie Screwvala opens a dialogue about inflated box-office figures, trade gurus put the onus on producers; assert the need for 'transparency'
Sonil Dedhia (MID-DAY; October 31, 2019)

In recent years, box-office collection has become the barometer of a film's success. No sooner does a big-ticket project hit screens than the conversation steers towards its opening weekend collection and whether it will find a place in the Rs 100-crore club. On Tuesday, filmmaker Ronnie Screwvala criticised trade analysts for sharing inflated figures, thus sparking a debate on Bollywood's obsession with box-office records.

Trade expert Amod Mehra acknowledges that the practice of inflating collections isn't new. "Everyone is in the race to prove that they have the highest collection on a particular day as this justifies the actor's remuneration and builds his credibility. But it's high time that we have a central agency that records the exact collection," says Mehra.

He cites the example of Housefull 4 that reportedly earned Rs 24 crore on Tuesday, thus taking the five-day tally to approximately Rs 111 crore. "According to my source, the first day collection of Housefull 4 was in the range of Rs 13-14 crore whereas the official figure given out was Rs 19 crore. There was also a difference of Rs 6 crore between my estimate and the official number given out for the fourth day [Monday] collections. So, the question of who is right and who is wrong arises."

When mid-day reached out to Taran Adarsh, the trade analyst emphasised the need for "transparency". "I wouldn't like to comment on Ronnie's tweet, nor would I like to point a finger at anyone, but there has to be transparency. It is important for the four wheels of the industry — producers, distributors, exhibitors and actors — to have access to the correct numbers. The question arises whether makers are bold enough to admit when a film fails."

Sonil Dedhia (MID-DAY; September 10, 2019)

On his 52nd birthday yesterday, Akshay Kumar announced that he has joined forces with Yash Raj Films for Prithviraj. The historical drama, which has him play the Rajput king from the Chahamana dynasty, is scheduled to release on Diwali 2020. Considering his horror comedy Laxmmi Bomb and Bachchan Pandey were already announced as Eid and Christmas offerings respectively, the actor has, in effect, booked the three biggest festivals — earlier counted as the domain of the Khan trio — for his films.

For an actor who has rarely relied on the advantage of festival releases in his 28-year career, Kumar seems to be adopting a new strategy. Trade expert Amod Mehra attributes the change to the recent success of Mission Mangal, which was an Independence Day release. "While most of his films would earn anywhere between Rs 125-150 crore, Mission Mangal touched the Rs 200-crore mark," says Mehra.

It is interesting to see that the superstar will be headlining six big projects in the next 15 months — his Housefull 4 is slated to hit screens this Diwali, followed by Good News in December. "With four big projects in 2020, almost Rs 500-700 crore is riding on Akshay." Mehra adds that the industry can safely bet big on the superstar, considering his last five releases have raked in over Rs 700 crore.

So, does that mean Kumar is ready to fight the Khans on their home turf? While Salman Khan has promised he will maintain his date with the audience on Eid 2020, Aamir Khan too has hinted that Laal Singh Chaddha will be a Christmas fare. "Akshay has had a splendid run over the last few years. If the buzz is anything to go by, his upcoming films will be sure shot successes. Right now, he has the first-mover advantage as Salman's movie has not even been announced."

Trade-smith Girish Wankhede observes that his upcoming outings are designed to revive his Khiladi image. "While Akshay's social dramas have been applauded, a section of the audience has criticised him for lending support to the ruling government through his offerings. With his next six releases, it is easy to see that he wants to change that image."

Sonil Dedhia (MID-DAY; August 16, 2019)

Given the wide success of the first season in the country, Netflix India went all guns blazing for the second edition of Sacred Games. In what is said to be the biggest investment any streaming service has made on original content in India, the company reportedly sanctioned a budget of Rs 100 crore for the Saif Ali Khan and Nawazuddin Siddiqui starrer — this, when the highest investment on an Indian web show is estimated to be in the range of Rs 3-4 crore per episode for a 12-episode series.

Clearly, the stage was set for a grand release. Unfortunately, within hours of the crime drama dropping online yesterday, all its eight episodes were leaked online by Tamilrockers, a website that has earlier been involved in the piracy of several Bollywood films.

Trade pundit Girish Wankhede says that it spells trouble for the streaming giant, which expected a 20 per cent jump in its subscriber base of 1.2 million, courtesy the Anurag Kashyap and Neeraj Ghaywan-directed show. “The platform recently announced a unique mobile plan, which isn’t available in any other country. This plan was introduced because the anticipation around the show was at an all-time high. The early estimates showed that the company was expecting around 20 per cent increase in subscription. But with this leak, it has lost about five to seven per cent of potential subscribers. Considering subscription is one of the biggest means of revenue, the leak will create a dent.”

Trade analyst Amod Mehra believes the turn of events will affect their existing user base as well. “Current subscribers may feel cheated and do a rethink before renewing their subscription. Sacred Games was the company’s chance to win new users. I think this is a big blow to Netflix and they need to act fast.”

‘UNSOUND’ START
The rampant leak of Sacred Games 2 isn’t the only problem niggling Netflix India. Since early Thursday, Twitter was buzzing with avid fans complaining about the subtitles of the show marring the experience. Turns out, the subtitles in the second episode of the crime thriller were out of sync. Many fans complained that they could not binge-watch the season owing to this technical glitch.

With Prabhas' Saaho releasing on August 30, trade gurus decode why Rajkummar Rao's Made In China and Sushant Singh Rajput's Chhichhore should avoid the clash
Sonil Dedhia (MID-DAY; July 25, 2019)

If Baahubali made Prabhas a superstar overnight, the effect of his superstardom can well be felt now. As soon as the makers of Saaho announced August 30 as their new release date, Bollywood producers scurried back to the calendar to rejig the release dates of their offerings. Trade experts believe that Sushant Singh Rajput's Chhichhore and Rajkummar Rao's Made In China, which were to hit screens on the last Friday of August, are likely to be postponed in a bid to avoid locking horns with the big-budget actioner.

Trade expert Amod Mehra states that the Sujeeth-directed venture is likely to open across 3000-plus screens across the country, leaving other releases barely 35 per cent of the total screen count. "Saaho is one of the most anticipated films of the year, and there is no chance it will be postponed any further. The box-office tracking for its opening day is around Rs 31 crore [across the three languages], which is huge." He also reasons that releasing two Shraddha Kapoor starrers alongside one another wouldn't be a wise move. "It is likely that Chhichhore will be pushed by a week, while the release of Made In China will be postponed even further."

Some might argue that Prabhas is essentially a South sensation. However, distributor-exhibitor Girish Wankhede opines that he enjoys a fan following that can easily match that of traditional Bollywood stars. "Even though it has been two years since Baahubali: The Conclusion, the audience is still reeling under its hangover. So, Prabhas has benefited from that despite not having any release in the interim." He adds that given his popularity, films releasing a week prior and later would benefit from a rethink. "Saaho will have a strong run for at least two weeks. Although Chhichhore and Made In China are films that people are looking forward to watch this year, it would be harakiri if they consider releasing on the same day."

While the officials at Maddock Films remained unavailable for comment, a source working in the production unit of Made In China says, "A patchwork shoot is pending. It will happen only once Rajkummar returns from the first schedule of Roohi-Afza. So, in all likelihood, the film will not make the August 30 deadline."

The I-Day weekend may offer a bouquet of films for cinephiles in Batla House, Mission Mangal and Saaho, but trade analysts frown upon the locking of horns of three big-budget movies at the BO
Upala KBR (MID-DAY; June 17, 2019)

With an increasing number of players exploiting the film-making market, the inevitable locking horns of movies at the box office has become an accepted norm. However, come August 15, three big-budget offering in Akshay Kumar's Mission Mangal, John Abraham's Batla House and Prabhas's Saaho, are set to cash in on the holiday weekend.

"It is suicidal," says trade analyst Amod Mehra without mincing words. He points to the budget of each film when highlighting how detrimental the clash will be for the producers. "Saaho's budget is over Rs 200 crore, and Mission Mangal and Batla House also are made on over Ra 100 crore each. It is economically unhealthy for three big movies to clash."

If put to test, he sees a clear winner in Saaho, courtesy the pan-India fan following that leading man Prabhas enjoys. "Saaho is an international release and cuts into mainstream Hindi cinema as well. It's a win-win situation for them to release it on August 15. They will make the maximum money via the Tamil and Telugu versions, and overseas. Not only was Prabhas appreciated in Baahubali, but the teaser of Saaho has created buzz." Mehra is certain that despite making official announcements, the makers of Mission Mangal or Batla House will revisit their dates. "Anyway, Akshay is a bigger star than John, so it makes sense that John's movie be moved."

Trade analyst Taran Adarsh echoes Mehra's opinion when stating that the clash of the big-budget films is not in favour of the industry's economics. "The screens and shows will be reduced drastically. It's a loss for the film industry and doesn't benefit anybody. The audience is not inclined to watching three films over a week, even if it is a big holiday. They will choose the best one, and the other two will suffer. The makers should sit across the table and decide on another release date," he says. While filmmakers have been nonchalant about locking horns with other filmmakers over the years, trade analyst Atul Mohan says the trend has never been fruitful for the industry. "When two big movies clash, we struggle. With three of them coming together, the business will be further divided. Prabhas, John and Akshay have their separate fan-base. We fight for screens and show-time because everyone wants [prime time]."

Batla House distributor Kumar Mangat Pathak says his team doesn't plan to revisit their dates. "We are coming on August 15 — no change. The profit margin may get reduced but if the producer and distributor have decided on the release date, it's fine. One can acquire lots of screens and shows during the Independence Day weekend."

mid-day reached out to the distributors of Mission Mangal and Saaho, but they didn't respond till the time of going to press.