As Bollywood misses a date with the festival this year, we look at its impact, and if 2020 could be catastrophic for the film business
Prashant Singh (HINDUSTAN TIMES; April 15, 2020)

Usually, the period of Eid brings a lot of cheer — and a lot of moolah as well — to Bollywood. But this year, due to the Coronavirus pandemic, B-Town won’t keep a date with Eid as Salman Khan’s Radhe: Your Most Wanted Bhai and Akshay Kumar-starrer Laxmmi Bomb have been delayed. Reportedly, besides a few days’ shoot, editing work on Radhe, too, is yet to be completed. And post production work is still to be completed on Laxmmi Bomb.

“The first quarter of 2019 was really bad, and now, with no Eid release, the second quarter has also started on a disastrous note,” says trade analyst Taran Adarsh. Losing out on an ever-dependable Eid weekend is a nasty blow since Bollywood business has already lost approximately ₹250-300 crore in the first quarter with the only major hit being the Ajay Devgn-starrer Tanhaji: The Unsung Warrior.

“Missing out on Eid is a huge setback since we depend on big festive periods for our tent-pole films to exploit. Also, the second quarter isn’t going to exist in our books now. The box office is, and will be, zero. But on the positive side, pent-up demand is a big factor in entertainment sector so, we are hopeful,” says distributor-exhibitor Akshaye Rathi. For producer Bhushan Kumar, who has nine releases in 2020, “it all looks dark right now”. He says, “No one is in the position to foresee anything. There was a time when producers would fight to grab festive periods such as Eid.”

So, the big question is will 2020 will turn out to be one of the worst years in recent times? “We don’t know what the future holds but it could turn out to be true. Movies are the last thing on people’s minds now,” says Adarsh. Rathi adds, “When every sector is getting badly hit, how can we be unaffected? Be it the exhibition, distribution or production, every section of film business is losing money daily as our profit margins are, anyway, not very big. And the fact that theatres are the first places to get shut, and the last to open, doesn’t help matters either.”

NOT TOO BRIGHT!
Trade experts feel the first quarter of 2020 has been “has been the worse in the last 2-3 years.” Apparently, the earnings [in the first quarter] has been Rs 778 crore, while last year, it was Rs 1,090 crore. In 2018, the numbers were around Rs 923 crore. Going forward too, there are a lot of questions, says Bhushan Kumar. “When will theatre re-open? Even when they open, will people go to watch films immediately? How will the social distancing norms be followed? Should movies be released digitally? But in that case, there is not enough recovery. So, it’s difficult to gauge anything right now,” he says.