If recent box office trends are anything to go by, Mohit Suri’s Saiyaara can be described as something that came out of the syllabus. Headlined by newcomers Ahaan Panday and Aneet Padda, the film has amassed an opening collection of Rs 21.25 crore, becoming one of the biggest openers of 2025 so far. It has also registered the biggest opening for a Bollywood film starring newcomers. It’s being talked about because it challenges the notion that romance is dead on the big screen, and that you need a star to open a film big.

But did anyone see this coming? mid-day asks trade experts. Bihar-based exhibitor and trade observer Vishek Chauhan says people who had their ears to the ground, did. “We got the first indication when Laila Majnu [2018] re-released and did tremendous business, followed by re-releases of Rockstar [2011] and Veer Zaara [2004] in 2024. When Sanam Teri Kasam [2016] re-released, it blew the lid. With their attendance, the audience told makers that they wanted more intense romantic films with solid music,” he explains, adding that it’s the youth who has championed the film.

“Saiyaara is being pushed and patronized by Gen Z. If the youth is not interested in your film, it cannot have a big opening. Since Saturday, calls have been pouring in from the family audience. It is breaking out in a different demographic now,” he says.

“Shah Rukh [Khan] started his career [with romance]. For me, he is my hero. But for this generation, he doesn’t have the same impact. He is either Vikram Rathod or Pathaan [his characters in Jawan and Pathaan, 2023]. Ranbir Kapoor gave his generation many romantic films — Rockstar, Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani [2013], and Tamasha [2015]. Sadly, this generation did not have one, until Saiyaara,” he adds.

Trade analyst Taran Adarsh says Saiyaara showcases the power of music and visual assets, and proves that excessive promotion yields no benefit. “Back in the day, filmmakers focused on music. Even today, when we play Antakshari, we sing old songs because they are [still] fresh. Today, music is not given importance. It could have been a risk to not have actors promote the film, but the makers of Saiyaara were relying on the trailer and the music, which worked big time.”

There’s chatter that the number hype around Saiyaara, a YRF venture, is partly manufactured, aided by PR. Freelance journalist and filmmaker Fenil Seta calls it “denial”. “When I went [for a morning show], I was shocked to see 60-70 per cent occupancy. So, the hype is real and organic. We should [know] what is happening on the ground beyond online claims.”

Have you seen it? What’s the opening collection? Those two questions are likely to dominate most conversations tomorrow as Aamir Khan’s Sitaare Zameen Par hits the screens. This, not just because it’s the superstar’s release after almost three years, but also because it will be the first Bollywood film to not have an OTT release post its theatrical run. Trade sources say the RS Prasanna-directed venture will open in the range of Rs 11-12 crore.

“Its first-day figures will be around Rs 11-12 crore. Laal Singh Chaddha too had opened at Rs 11 crore,” says a trade source.

One would have expected a bigger opening for Khan’s film. But exhibitor Raj Bansal argues that such an opening is not concerning, given the film’s genre. Sitaare... tells the story of an arrogant basketball coach, whose perspective on life is changed by a group of neuro-divergent kids.

“It’s a tricky subject to handle. Also, it’s not for the masses. How Aamir has handled the subject [will determine] whether families come to theatres. An Aamir film should have opened bigger, but his last two films didn’t fare well at the box office. That’s a deterrent. If the film is appreciated, it can jump to Rs. 16-18 crore collections on day two, and take a jump of 40 per cent on Sunday,” he says.

Sources reveal that Khan has told theatres to not play any show before 11 am tomorrow, and have limited shows before 6 pm. Freelance journalist and trade expert Fenil Seta explains, “By having limited showcasing until 6 pm, all shows will enjoy a good occupancy. After that, the footfall will anyway increase.”